Mark your calendar for Tuesday, May 12. That’s when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the April 2026 CPI-W — the next data point in the running calculation that will ultimately determine what military retirees, disabled veterans, and Social Security recipients see in their January 2027 checks.
The March 2026 CPI-W, released April 10, came in at 323.500. That’s a sharp jump driven largely by energy costs tied to the Iran conflict — and it wasn’t a small move. The single-month reading pushed the 2027 COLA tracking figure from 0.7% to 2.0% above the established baseline of 317.265. A 1.3% surge in one month, one of the largest single-month CPI-W increases in recent years, reshaped the outlook considerably from where things stood just 30 days earlier.
To be clear about where things stand: 2.0% is not the 2027 COLA. It’s the current tracking figure only. The final adjustment will be calculated by averaging the July, August, and September 2026 CPI-W readings against that 317.265 baseline — the same three-month average method that has governed federal retirement COLA math since the 1970s.
The Math Behind the Number
The formula itself is straightforward: (323.500 – 317.265) ÷ 317.265 × 100 = 1.965%, rounded to the nearest tenth, which yields the current 2.0% tracking figure. That baseline — 317.265 — represents the average CPI-W for July, August, and September 2024. It’s the fixed denominator in every monthly calculation between now and the official October announcement.
Early forecasts from the Senior Citizens League (TSCL) and the Congressional Budget Office put the 2027 COLA at 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. Both figures predate the March spike and may shift depending on what April delivers on May 12.
Who Gets What — Retirement System Breakdown
Not every military retiree receives the same adjustment. Here is where each group stands:
- Final Pay retirees (entered service before Sept. 8, 1980) receive the full COLA applied to gross retired pay.
- High-3 retirees (entered service on or after Sept. 8, 1980, and before Jan. 1, 2018) receive the full COLA applied to gross retired pay.
- Blended Retirement System (BRS) retirees (entered on or after Jan. 1, 2018) also receive the full COLA under the High-3 calculation built into BRS.
- CSB/REDUX retirees — those who accepted the $30,000 Career Status Bonus at their 15-year mark after August 1, 1986, and before January 1, 2018 — receive COLA minus one full percentage point whenever inflation exceeds 1%. At a 2.0% tracking figure, REDUX retirees would receive approximately 1.0%.
- New retirees who retired in 2025 receive a prorated COLA based on retirement quarter: Q1 (Jan–Mar) 75%, Q2 (Apr–Jun) 50%, Q3 (Jul–Sep) 25%, Q4 (Oct–Dec) 0% in the first year.
VA disability compensation, Survivor Benefit Plan annuities, and Social Security benefits all move on the same COLA that governs military retirement pay. No action required — DFAS applies the adjustment automatically under authority of 10 U.S.C. § 1401a. Retirees can verify updated figures through DFAS myPay at mypay.dfas.mil.
“The purpose of the COLA is to ensure that the purchasing power of Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits is not eroded by inflation.” — Social Security Administration
That stated purpose is under ongoing scrutiny. The Congressional Budget Office continues to list a switch to “Chained CPI” as a budget option — a move that would save the federal government an estimated $278 billion over 10 years, directly at the expense of retirees’ purchasing power. MOAA and The Military Coalition successfully reversed a similar “COLA minus 1 percent” provision passed in a 2013 continuing resolution, but the pressure has never fully gone away.
“It doesn’t necessarily improve their financial situation. It’s more of an offset, especially when you consider that health care and housing costs are rising faster than the COLA itself.” — Stephanie Ford, SVP, Wealth Enhancement Group
What to Watch Next
The April 2026 CPI-W drops May 12. May figures follow in mid-June, June figures in mid-July — at which point the first of the three determinative months, July, begins accumulating. The official 2027 COLA announcement from the Social Security Administration is expected in mid-October 2026, with the adjustment effective December 1, 2026, and reflected in the January 2027 payment.
Bookmark the MOAA COLA Watch page (linked below). It updates monthly after each BLS release and remains the most reliable single-source tracker for military community members following this number.
Leave a Reply